Search results for "lagged loss function"

Conditional predictive inference for online surveillance of spatial disease incidence

2011

This paper deals with the development of statistical methodology for timely detection of incident disease clusters in space and time. The increasing availability of data on both the time and the location of events enables the construction of multivariate surveillance techniques, which may enhance the ability to detect localized clusters of disease relative to the surveillance of the overall count of disease cases across the entire study region. We introduce the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate as a general Bayesian model-based surveillance technique that allows us to detect small areas of increased disease incidence when spatial data are available. To address the problem of mult…